The probability of a decrease remains.

On the daily chart, an upward third wave of the higher degree 3 of (A) is developing, within which the first wave of the lower degree i of 3 has likely been completed, followed by a corrective movement forming the second wave ii of 3. On the four-hour chart, wave (c) of ii is forming. In addition, wave iii of (c) has already formed, a correction has developed as wave iv of (c), and wave v of (c) is developing. If this scenario proves correct, the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue toward the 1.1200–1.0990 area, with the critical stop loss level for this scenario at 1.1435.

The EUR/USD pair has been moving within the sideways range of 1.1474–1.1352 (Murrey [4/8]–[2/8]) for the second month: today, amid the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the publication of positive June business activity data in Germany from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO), the prices tested the level of 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8]).

The European currency is extending the downward momentum established the previous day and is testing support at the 1.1380 level, attempting to establish itself below this threshold as market participants assess the outcome of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.

The EUR/USD pair is correcting around 1.1432, while traders assess the impact of two key factors — heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and deteriorating economic growth prospects in the eurozone.