For two consecutive weeks, the GBP/USD pair has been declining, reversing at 1.3549 (Murrey [6/8]). The price reached 1.3305 (Murrey [2/8]) and consolidated below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. Today, the price corrected to the area of 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]) amid a possible easing of geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region: over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a suspension of mutual missile strikes, which may mean the resumption of diplomatic negotiations to reach a peace deal.

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is undergoing a corrective move, trading near the 1.3311 mark amid a recovery in the US dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. The pound remains unable to resume its upward trend as investors continue to reassess the monetary policy outlook of the leading central banks, while persistent geopolitical risks continue to weigh on market sentiment. Global inflation expectations are also influencing energy prices.

During the morning session, the GBP/USD pair is recovering after the “bearish” trend formed at the end of last week and is testing the 1.3450 level, while investors assess British labor market statistics.

The probability of a decrease remains.

On the daily chart, an ascending third wave of the higher degree (3) is developing, which includes the first wave of the lower degree 1 of (3), while a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (3). At the moment, the third wave c of 2 is forming, while the third wave (iii) of c and the correction as the fourth wave (iv) of c have already formed, and the fifth wave (v) of c is forming. If the assumption is correct, then the decline in the GBP/USD pair will continue towards the 1.2950−1.2756 area. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 1.3560.