The USD/CAD pair is moving within a medium-term upward trend, forming a corresponding channel. At the beginning of the month, it reached 1.4282 (Murrey [5/8], Fibonacci retracement 61.8%), but failed to break higher and began a corrective decline.

Against unstable dynamics of the American currency, the USD/CAD pair is correcting, trading at 1.4011, despite positive macroeconomic statistics from Canada.

The probability of the pair’s growth remains.

On the daily chart, a downward correction as the second wave of a higher degree (2) has completed, and the third wave (3) and the third wave 3 of (3) are forming. Currently, the leading first wave of a lower degree i of 3 is forming, within which the third wave (iii) of i and the correction as the fourth wave (iv) of i have finished, and the fifth wave (v) of i has begun. If the assumption is correct, the USD/CAD pair will rise to the range of 1.4540–1.4790. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 1.4025.