The probability of growth remains.

On the daily chart, an upward third wave of the senior degree within wave (5) and a corrective fourth wave of (5) has emerged. On the four-hour timeframe, the fifth wave 5 of (5) is developing, as part of which the initial first wave i of 5 is forming. If this scenario proves correct, the XAU/USD pair’s upward trend is expected to continue toward the 4890.00–5585.00 zone with a critical stop loss at 3943.00.

The XAU/USD pair is holding slightly above this summer’s key support level of 4000.0.

During the Asian session, the XAU/USD quotes are consolidating around 4014.01, reflecting the balance between demand for defensive assets and the strengthening of the US dollar: traders are refraining from opening large positions in anticipation of signals from macroeconomic data and further developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.